Oregon and Oregon State Football commentary & more
The Holiday season wouldn’t be complete without a College Bowl Pick’em group. In an effort to satisfy your competitive edge while watching these upcoming bowl games I’ve created a Yahoo! group you can join if you feel inclined.
Click here to join our Yahoo! College Bowl Pick ‘Em Group
The password for entry is: pac12
If you’re unaware of how to play here are the rules (There’s no picking against the spread!):
Most importantly:
With Oregon’s sleepwalk win over UCLA last Friday night they clinched their 3rd consecutive Pac-10/12 title and a berth in the Rose Bowl against (drum roll please)…
The Wisconsin Badgers.
I don’t know about you, but this team doesn’t strike the anxiety in me like Ohio State, Auburn and LSU did before them. Chip Kelly’s offense has preconditioned me to look at an opponents defense first because it’s almost always a foregone conclusion that the Ducks will put points on the board. Figuring out where Oregon can exploit a defense is Kelly’s specialty, and I think he’ll like what he finds this time around.
Since the game is still a month away I don’t want to wear this topic out, but I will throw out some interesting numbers that may shine some light on Wisconsin as a defense. I heard on the radio today that the Badgers boast a pass defense ranked 3rd in the country along with a 46th ranked rush defense.
Think about that for a second. Who in the Big Ten (even though it’s 12 teams) really chucks the ball all over the place and causes hell for opposing LB’s and DB’s? Outside of Michigan State (who doesn’t really go hog wild with the pass anyways) I couldn’t come up with a team. Intrigued, I decided to do a bit of digging and came up with the passing offenses ranked nationally for the Big Ten Conference.
Big Ten Passing Offenses Ranked Nationally *Out of 120 FBS Teams
Northwestern – 35th
Michigan State – 44th
Iowa – 56th
Wisconsin – 63rd
Indiana – 80th
Purdue – 82nd
Michigan – 90th
Illinois – 91st
Penn State – 96th
Nebraska – 103rd
Minnesota – 108th
Ohio State – 116th
So, the best past offense in the entire Big Ten belongs to Northwestern who is ranked 35th? Yeesh. That probably explains why Wisconsin’s pass defense is ranked so high when everyone in the conference blows at throwing the ball. More than 65% of the conference is ranked 80th or higher which truly demonstrates that the Big Ten is a power football conference. More importantly, the lack of a passing game allows for teams to become offensively predictable and one-dimensional.
Even if Wisconsin’s 3rd ranked passing defense holds water, which I don’t think it does, Oregon is still a running team first and foremost. So what are the rankings of Big Ten rushing attacks that the Badgers have had to deal with this season?
Big Ten Rushing Offenses Ranked Nationally
Wisconsin – 10th
Michigan – 12th (Did not play this season)
Nebraska – 13th
Ohio State – 27th (LOST)
Northwestern – 36th (Did not play this season)
Purdue – 39th
Illinois – 42nd
Penn State – 54th
Indiana – 58th
Minnesota – 59th
Michigan State – 76th (LOST 1st match-up)
Iowa – 77th
After looking at the numbers I would’ve loved to see Wisconsin take on Northwestern due to their above average rankings in both the passing and running game. Michigan’s running game would’ve likely given the Badgers hell too. If you haven’t taken a look at Wisconsin’s schedule here it is for your enjoyment. You may wonder how they even lost a game considering their toughest opponents all season were a one-dimensional Nebraska team and Michigan State:
Is it safe to say Oregon is more battled tested? Without question. Oregon has played #1 LSU, #4 Stanford and #5 USC this season with Stanford being the most similar opponent to Wisconsin’s play style. Keep in mind that the Pac-12 is still ranked ahead of the Big Ten as the 3rd best conference this season too.
New recruit, Chris Brown, speaks about his decision:
Fresno (Calif.) San Joaquin Memorial running back Chris Brown made the call tonight and surprised more than a few with his decision. The 5-foot-11, 184-pound back committed to Oregon State over offers from Oregon, Washington and Arizona among others.
Brown cited the coaching staff was a pivotal part of his decision.
“I picked the place I felt the best at and felt at home,” Brown said. “I got a great vibe from the coaches and that was key to my decision. I’m done with the recruiting process, I’m going to Oregon State.”
The three-star prep was due to come on an official visit to Oregon this weekend but the talented prep said he was firm in his decision.
“I’m done, I’m not taking any other visits,” he said.
Perhaps he read my previous post, perhaps not, but whatever it was, Chris Brown wasn’t hypnotized by flashy colors and chose the Beavers over the Ducks.
This is my favorite commitment for OSU thus far. OSU had one of the worst rushing “attacks” in the country this past season. The upperclassmen on the O-Line were bad, and there didn’t seem to be a standout at RB, either. The Beavers need a RB with star potential like Jacquizz Rodgers, and Brown looks like he can certainly fill that need. I guess Beaver fans should be lucky the Ducks are already rich at RB. I would have been a little pissed had they gotten Brown, too.
With the albatrosses on the O-Line finally graduating and the more talented underclassmen ready to take over, added with a talent like Brown, signals good news in bleak times.
Oregon State needs a RB. There doesn’t seem to be a RB currently on their roster that has the “it” factor that past players have had. Jovan Stevenson is average in all areas, Jordan Jenkins is a better backfield receiver than runner, Terron Ward needs to bulk up and improve his vision, and Malcolm Agnew is a fumbling machine. Unless Storm Woods surges in the offseason, the RB position remains weak (though, the fact Agnew played as a true freshman while Woods redshirted doesn’t get any hopes up).
One of the RB recruits on OSU’s radar this offseason has been Chris Brown, from Fresno, CA. It’s always nice when a highly rated RB is considering your program, and yesterday it was reported he has narrowed his decision down to two schools:
Memorial High turns to Chris “Downtown” Brown again tonight – and maybe with more dependence than ever.
“I always like our chances with him,” Panthers coach Anthony Goston says of the 4,873-yard career rusher, who has narrowed his college choices to Oregon and Oregon State.
Sigh. Another RB choosing between the Beavers and the Ducks. In-state blue chip RB, Thomas Tyner, already gave a verbal commitment to the Ducks a couple weeks ago over the Beavers, and now this.
I’ll never understand the thought process of some of these high school kids. Why would someone want to go to a program that’s already stacked at a position and risk sitting on the bench for 2 or 3 years instead of selecting a program where they could be a 4 year starter? USC can get away with it because they have tradition and prestige that no other PAC-12 school can match.
“Because they want to win.” – This is an argument you’ll get from people on the other side.
Is it worth it to sacrifice a couple years of your eligibility to be a cheerleader on the sidelines of a program that’s winning? If so, then why not just put on a skirt and grab some pom-poms?
In two years, Oregon will have DeAnthony Thomas, Tra Carson, Thomas Tyner, Byron Marshall, and possibly D.J. Foster all taking carries, plus whomever else they recruit from now until then. Oregon State will have… Stevenson. Which school can offer more of an opportunity to showcase a new recruit?
Oregon is currently flashing in the pan and recording some good W-L records while everyone else in the conference is mediocre. Recruits with short attention spans seem to be hypnotized by recent success and flashy colors, like children drawn to cartoons and fat people to cake. It’s easy to make an uninspired and trendy choice to join a program and ride the coat-tails of those in front of you. However, isn’t the sense of accomplishment greater by making a down program better with an immediate impact?
Well, FireMikeRiley.com began following us on Twitter this week. I usually roll my eyes at fans that beg for coaches to be fired 24/7, but after witnessing this year’s Civil War I feel like something drastically needs to change in Corvallis. Hell, this is even coming from a guy that is supposed to revel in the Beavers complete and total demise! I know, I know…a Duck fan talking about the status of Beaver football can be considered snarky and sacrilegious, but I’m a fan of good football first and foremost.
Yesterday’s hiring of Mike Leach to Washington State was the real tipping point that made me realize the Beavers are beginning to be left behind. The rave reviews the Cougars, an otherwise irrelevant team, are receiving nationally is just the thing that the Beavers needed to do after their second straight losing season. I’ll admit that I dislike the Beavers as much as the next hardcore Duck fan, but what I don’t like is blatant apathy. It’s one thing if the Ducks win a competitive Civil War (ex. 2009) but this years contest felt so subdued and boring that Dam Beaver and I barely discussed the game prior to kickoff.
Granted, Dam Beaver’s prolonged hiatus’ between blog posts directly correlate with how well the team is doing on a weekly basis but apathy reigns supreme right now in Beaver Nation and it’s a very dangerous thing. I’ve read enough message boards to understand that the Oregon State athletic department is shackled to Mike Riley via his “lifetime contract,” but is there really no other way for his position to be vacated? The only way Washington State was capable of hiring Leach in the first place was by using Pac-12 TV money to solidify the deal. Are alterations to the football team truly impossible in Corvallis? If so, mediocrity may Occupy Reser for years to come.
I remember watching the 2004 Civil War with my dad when OSU kicked the shit out of the Ducks 50-21. Andy Ludwig was the offensive coordinator at the time, and the Oregon offense was absolutely atrocious and predictable. In addition to the boring and monotonous playcalling the offensive line allowed nearly 40 sacks that season too. The Beavers ended up handing Oregon their last losing season, and it signified a changing of the guard for the Ducks offensively.
At season’s end, Ludwig was let go and Gary Crowton was hired as offensive headman. The following season Oregon went 10-2.
Point proven.
After two losing seasons, Riley has shown the inability to embrace change. He’s obviously unwilling to make an adjustment at any of his coordinator positions, and that’s likely his biggest downfall in my opinion. If he was to adopt change at any of the assistant positions it would show the fan base that not only is he striving for improvement but that they are being heard. The resounding apathy that I’m noticing with Beaver fans isn’t only the depression from bad football, but also their head coach’s lack of ingenuity to try something new.
Riley sympathizers will harp on the fact that this year’s unit was a young one, but you know what: Oregon only has 10 seniors on this 2011 squad that is one win away from a Rose Bowl berth.
The youth excuse can only go so far, and it’s evident to me that Beaver Nation is at the point where accountability from the coaching staff is the only thing that will pacify the masses.
This pathetic season comes to end today with the “Civil War.”
Thank God.
What this team needs the most is for several months off, the Seniors to graduate and some coaching changes in the off-season. Never before have I seen a team so unprepared to play every week as I have this year. The majority of OSU’s talent is in it’s younger players, so hopefully better years are ahead. Hope, however, is easily killed with these current coaches. It’s no shock that fans have gravitated from football over to basketball so soon, as Craig Robinson and his team are off to their best start in years, offering fans at least a taste of success for the time-being; something that football has been unable to provide.
Today, it doesn’t get any better. Playing in Autzen Stadium against one of the fastest teams in the country with perhaps the fastest offense in the country. This match-up on paper is not even worth reading it’s so lopsided in Oregon’s favor. The Ducks have built a team consisting of 4-star talent with a few 5-stars peppered in, wowing high school blue chips with excessively extravagant and gaudy facilities, sculptures, uniforms and shoes. They’ve done well to mask the boring, bad-weathered hippy atmosphere of Eugene by hypnotizing recruits with flashy colors. Their university’s alliance with a global corporate empire and utilization of it’s masterful predatory and psychological marketing techniques has cognitively implanted a perception of coolness about themselves in the minds of younger people and hipsters. Whether or not you agree with their methods, it’s pure genius. As people are attracted to “Apple” products for no reason other than it’s “cool”, so to are people to the “O.”
Oregon State, on the other hand, is currently full of slow 2-star talent. Some have been coached up to 4-star level, but the fact is they’re feeling the effects of horrible recruiting classes the past several years, failing to capitalize on “almost Rose Bowl” seasons and all-conference/all-american lineages at skill positions. What is left is a shell of it’s former “middle-of-the-pack” self. What they lack is a staff that has the potential to take the program to new heights, not just the Cartel Coke-Mule Bowl in El-Paso in the good years.
What we will witness, yet again, today, is Mark Banker refusing to defend against the spread offense and mobile QB’s, Danny Langsdorf refusing to add imagination to the offense, calling for 3rd & short passes when it’s 3rd & long, and Mike Riley allowing it to continue while still playing Mr. Conservative, calling for Romaine instead of going for it on 4th downs.
This is a total route. The Ducks will gain almost 400 rushing yards on the ball-less, slow-ass Beavers. The question, and real Vegas bet, should be: Does any Oregon player actually break a sweat today?
Swoosh - 52
Beavers – 24
For as long as I can remember this has been the most anticlimactic week leading up to a civil war. The fact that the Ducks are 4 TD favorites doesn’t help the apathy that resounds around the state, and if you’ve paid any attention to either of these football teams throughout the season you notice this game has some glaring match-up problems that favor the Ducks.
To make matters worse for OSU it’s also being played at Autzen Stadium.
If Oregon had sports betting I’d put money on the Beavers to cover the spread in this game. It’s no secret Chip Kelly likes Mike Riley and that they both have respect for one another. This is also a rivalry game and the Beavers should come out with enough fire to make this respectable well into the 3rd quarter. There’s no way Chip rubs it in Riley’s face on national television either. With that being said, the only real way I see the Ducks covering the spread is if fumbles or interceptions are returned for touchdowns.
There’s no question that the Beavers have the ability to win this game if Oregon comes out flat and uninspired, but the main issue I have with Oregon State is where they plan on getting the majority of their points. As I mentioned earlier in the week, Markus Wheaton only has 1 touchdown all season while being their most potent offensive threat on the field. Even if Wheaton and Rodgers account for 2 TD’s each while mixing in a score from a running back that’s only 35 points. Ultimately, it’s going to take a ridiculous offensive effort across the board for the Beavers to take home the W.
More importantly, OSU can’t afford to get behind in this football game if they want to keep it competitive. 3 & out’s could spell disaster early. I’ve watched enough of Sean Mannion this season to know you don’t want this guy throwing the ball 40+ times. Being a freshman, he’s mistake prone but that’s not entirely his fault considering a complete lack of a run game doesn’t do him any favors.
By now, you know what you’re going to get from the Ducks. A fast-strike offense with a spirited defensive effort that rarely gives up the big play. I’m beginning to believe it’s not always the opponent that stops Oregon but rather Oregon itself. If Oregon can be efficient, execute, and limit turnovers they should control this game from the get-go. It’s pretty simple, if Oregon can’t handle business against OSU at home then they don’t deserve a BCS game.
PREDICTION: Oregon 42 / OSU – 27
By the Numbers:
*Oregon is ranked 5th nationally in rushing offense. Conversely, Oregon State is 83rd in rush defense.
*On the flip side, Oregon State is ranked 116th in rushing offense. Conversely, Oregon is 57th in rush defense.
*The most important stat out there: Oregon ranks 3rd nationally in scoring offense. Oregon State ranks 96th.
*Oregon is tied for 8th nationally in sacks while being ranked 13th with only 10 sacks allowed all season. Conversely, Oregon State has allowed 21 sacks this season.